Assessing extreme typhoon-induced coastal flood risk in the Philippines

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The approach involved:

- The generation of a 10,000 year synthetic dataset of typhoons.

- Hydrodynamic modelling of the storm surge that would result from a sub-set of the synthetic typhoons.

- Estimation of the storm surge magnitude for the remaining typhoons using machine learning approaches.

- Derivation of extreme sea-levels using the Skew Surge Joint Probability method.

- Estimation of the impacts of sea-level rise.

Benefit

The key benefit of this project was the collaborative working between ourselves and PAGASA, and the

associated capacity building and engagement. This collaborative working has helped to raise the profile of

coastal flood risk in the Philippines and to embed skills locally which can now be used to inform future work

nationally. Additionally, the work is specifically informing the Jalaur River flood risk management scheme.

Funding for this work is provided by the Urban Climate Change Resilience Trust Fund. This fund supports

cities by improving urban planning, designing climate resilient infrastructure and investing in projects and

people. The Rockefeller Foundation and the governments of Switzerland and the United Kingdom support the

fund.